Fantasy Football 2021 Season Preview Part 3: Running Backs
The first few are obvious, but some players I believe are being undervalued could win you your league.
Finally the most important part of any fantasy draft, the Running Backs. Nothing is worse than after a draft sitting there and not liking your running back core because the options get so thin so quick. I'll also give you a preview of who to eye in which rounds (before the others in your league does), who I have as sleepers, and when the payoff for taking a chance on them will be worth the risk those players come with.
Again, for simplicity sake I'll be acting as if this is a 10 team .5 PPR league. So RBs (and WRs/TEs later) will be boosted a bit if they tend to accumulate catches in bunches.
Top of the Draft
Christian McCaffrey | CAR
Alvin Kamara | NO
Derrick Henry | TEN
Dalvin Cook | MIN
You'll notice a trend with the RBs in this top tier. They're all bell cows, who are a safe bet to get a steady amount of touches each and every week. These guys are also at the top of their game, athletically. While none of them are flawless in terms of health (which is rare for the top of the draft where nobody has 0 questions), I'm willing to bet CMC bounces back after his first time ever missing games due to an injury. Kamara and King Henry have never played fewer than 15 games. Dalvin Cook is in 4th because of his health. He has never played more than 14 games in a season and I’m all about limiting risk in round 1. If both play 17 game seasons, Cook vs Kamara vs Henry vs CMC won’t win you your league. Miss one of them at a key moment in the year such as a playoff push or the playoffs themselves and you’re in a world of trouble (if you don’t have a handcuff, but more on that later). However with Cook and Minnesota, the offense around him being mostly the same he still stays in that top tier.
Mid Round 1
Ezekiel Elliot | DAL
Saquon Barkley | NYG
Aaron Jones | GB
Zeke and Saquon are both at the top of this tier and not the tier above for the same reason. They have the talent that the guys on the top level do, but come with questions that hold me back from lumping them in with the top dogs. Ezekiel Elliot really struggled behind Dallas's injured OLine last year after they lost Dak and suffered some injuries themselves. He also received his fewest touches per game last year in his career and has seen his snap count eaten into a little bit by the electric Tony Pollard. Still Zeke should bounce back behind a healthier Dallas offense. He also has lost a lot of weight heading into camp and is actually healthy to start camp which is why I have him just a spot over our next RB. Saquon Barkley is coming off an ACL injury and on the PUP list to start camp. The Giants also still don't know if Daniel Jones is the guy or if the OLine is finally fixed. We saw glimpses of what could be with Wayne Gallman's impressive run weeks 7-12 but will this powder keg of potential boom or will we keep watching the fuse sparkle wondering if it'll explode any second now? Too risky for the top tier but too much potential to go any lower. Aaron Jones is a very intriguing case (again) this year. He'd be an EASY top tier RB if the Packers ever freed him (4 games with 20+ carries in the last 2 season and 1 last year, FREE AARON JONES!!). I get that it's tough to give him the ball when Aaron Rodgers is tearing up the league but will Rodgers even be on the Packers by the end of this year? If not will that help Jones's value with a boost in touches or will it force him to face a loaded box every snap similar to Zeke last year without Dak in at QB. Also keep in mind while Jamaal Williams is no longer in town, AJ Dillon was a second round pick last year for a reason.
Late Round 1 - Early Round 2
Nick Chubb | CLE
Chris Carson | SEA
Jonathan Taylor | IND
Austin Ekeler | LAC
Now right before this tier is where I would consider taking a pass catcher before I take any of these guys. Personally I rarely ever do go non RB in round 1 but it depends on the league size, and those who are picking in the late 1st after me and what they tend to draft (again, read the room). I want to LOVE Nick Chubb as a fantasy player so badly. In a vacuum, he isn’t just in the tier above but the top tier. I really do but I can't get myself to do it. Fantasy football always comes down to talent and opportunity and the talent is there, no doubt. The opportunity? Kareem Hunt cuts into it. Without Hunt, Chubb is a fringe top 5 fantasy RB. With him? The backend of top 10. He should still go round 1 but not before any of the other guys I named, don't outsmart yourself. A question I have for the second year in a row is will it take to get some love for Chris Carson?? He is a steady RB week in and week out in an offense that has the deep threat WRs who will keep defenses from loading the box. Rashaad Penny has also been unable to prove he can stay healthy long enough to provide competition so there isn’t much threat for Carson to lose touches. Carson was ranked way too low by the consensus last year and it's happening again this year. If you want a steady reliable RB without a real threat behind him (Rashaad Penny has yet to prove otherwise), go take Chris Carson in the end of round 1. Jonathan Taylor was really inconsistent last season and had a lower ceiling than I expected. However he ended the year really strong and I see that as a trend that continues into 2021. Austin Ekeler meanwhile has only once scored more than 6 touchdowns on a season, rushing and receiving combined. The yardage numbers don't look great either but will be a valuable asset in PPR leagues if he can come back. In non PPR I'd drop him down a tier but in PPR he functions like an Audi equivalent to the Ferrari that is Kamara. Still a really nice RB to land in late R1/early R2.
Late Round 2 - Early Round 3
Josh Jacobs | LV
Joe Mixon | CIN
Antonio Gibson | WAS
You’ll notice this tier is a lot thinner. Well a lot more WRs are going in this tier and even some QBs if you’ve read my earlier posts. Josh Jacobs, similar to Carson, I feel like is not getting the love he deserves. However he burned some fantasy owners last year, and literally stuck us the middle finger. If you forget what I’m talking about, here’s a remind of the anti fantasy football player hate session on his IG last year.
It’s a risk because anytime he’s questionable he’ll be as trustworthy as that ex who has already cheated on you and you’re not sure if she’ll do it again. You’ll need to closely monitor his status closely right up to game time which won’t easy given that the Raiders current schedule only has 3 games with a 1:00 ET kickoff but it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Keep in mind also that the Raiders also brought in Kenyan Drake, so Jacobs may not see the usual volume he’s used to. Joe Mixon was disappointing last season, but if healthy is a reliable option. He should be more so with Joe Burrow back and Ja’Marr Chase to help keep defenses from loading up the box. Antonio Gibson to me is SUCH a boom or bust player to me entering 2021. Last season he averaged just under 15 touches per game which isn’t ideal. However he did a ton of work when he did get the ball, averaging 4.7 ypc and 11 rushing TDs. He had a rushing TD about every 15.5 carries. It’s hard to imagine that ratio would continue into 2021 without a little regression, but if he gets more volume he could easily be a top 10 back, and one of the steals of the season.
Late Round 3 - Early Round 4
JK Dobbins | BAL
Miles Sanders | PHI
David Montgomery | CHI
DeAndre Swift | DET
Najae Harris | PIT
This tier is fun because all of these guys have boom potential. JK Dobbins had a really nice second half of the season, and that trend could continue. But with the Ravens upgrading their receiving weapons, Gus Edwards who they really like back again, and the centerpiece of the running attack still Lamar Jackson, there are just better options above him in terms of volume. Miles Sanders also has a volume issue. Last year he fell short of expectations and the recent signing of Kerryon Johnson isn’t ideal, especially in goal line situations where Johnson could vulture some TDs. Like Dobbins, Sanders could lose some touches in the run game to his QB, Jalen Hurts, who enters the season as the starter for Philly. David Montgomery, like Gibson, is very boom or bust too. He was a league winner for most players if you had him on your roster in the second half of the year, but does that half season outweigh the year and a half of fantasy mediocrity we saw from Montgomery? I’d like to avoid feeling forced into him, draft enough RBs early so I don’t feel like I NEED him, but after this tier the picking gets thin fast at RB so I’ll roll the dice here if I must. DeAndre Swift is someone who really surprised me when I looked back at his numbers. I had not realized that he had 57 targets and 46 catches last season in 13 games. There are also 200 carries that are freed up with the departures of Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson. I realize that Jamaal Williams will probably get a sizeable chunk of those carries, but Swift will be the main piston that drives the Detroit running game and depending on how much the Lions turst Goff to throw, potentially the entire offense. I know many people will have him higher but personally, I am not taking Najae Davis until this point. I think Najae is a supremely talented RB who reminds me of a more powerful Matt Forte but that situation in Pittsburgh scares me. They blew up that offensive line this offseason and the results don’t look pretty. No team attempted more passes than the Steelers last year, who have 3 mouths to feed at WR with Juju, Claypool, and Johnson. Don’t forget Ebron at TE too. I can easily see Harris having a decent season but not living up to the RB1 expectations that are being set. I can also see him having the kind of seasons we used to get from David Montgomery However the lights are on, last call was 30 minutes ago and Closing Time is playing. RBs with RB1 potential are few and far between at this point and if I need a RB, and he’s there and nobody else in this or the above tiers are, I know who I want to take me home.
5 Fantasy Team Name Suggestions RB Edition:
LOL JK Dobbins
You Gibson You Take Some
Mixon a Batch
Blown a Gaskin
Etienne Phone Home
Late Round 4 - Round 5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC
Mike Davis | ATL
Lights have come on at the bar and the picking is slim if you want to find someone to leave with. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a sleeper last year before he became the guy when the season started and then after that he was kind of *shrugs* meh through the year. It’s reasonable to think he’ll take a big leap forward but this will never be a Clyde Edwards-Helaire offense in KC. Mahomes will be fed first, and through him Kelce in Hill. After that everyone else is fighting for what’s left. If CEH isn’t the lone running back on the field for the Chiefs, it’s hard to imagine him reaching the late 1st round potential everyone had him pegged for last year. Truth be told, I LOVE me some Mike Davis in fantasy this year. I truly believe he can be a league winner and one of the best draft day steals, which is why I risk being told I reached and have him as high up this year as I do. There isn’t much competition for touches in the Falcons backfield and he was a great receiving back in Carolina who got a ton of catches when CMC was out so the volume should be there. The yards per carry don’t look sexy but he did average more than CMC did AND he also averaged the most missed tackles per rush of any running back not named Nick Chubb, who’s pretty good at making people miss. I think Davis is gonna be a steal for most people this season and could be the Falcons next Michael Turner. Meanwhile, as I reach for Mike Davis, I am not taking
Round 6 - Round 7
Kareem Hunt | CLE
Myles Gaskin | MIA
Damien Harris | NE
Darrell Henderson Jr | LAR
Chase Edmonds | ARI
James Robinson | JAX
I love Kareem Hunt as a fantasy RB based on his value and potential upside. Hunt has a decent floor, getting plenty of snaps despite Nick Chubbs presence. Even after Chubb came back in week 10, Hunt still played >40% of snaps in all but one game. If Chubb does go down with an injury, Hunt is instantly a fringe top 10 back. He’s a handcuff who is a fringe starter, depending on the matchup that week and how deep your league is. Myles Gaskin last season was a nice play with the fact that he had a high floor due to his high volume in the passing game. If he doesn’t see that volume again and doesn’t vastly improve his YPC he could be a bust if you take him too high. Keep in mind that Miami put a waiver claim in on Kerryon Johnson, even after signing Malcom Brown this offseason, so Miami may not be fully sold on Gaskin themselves. Damien Harris was a nice piece for a lot of teams when healthy and in a vacuum, you would expect him to potentially break out this year. He only had two touchdowns last year and with his bruising running style one would expect that to go up. However, his problem is two fold. 1: He’s limited in what he brings to the table. Harris had 5 catches in 10 games last year don’t expect him to give you much in the passing game, especially with New England’s offseason additions to boost the passing attack. 2: It’s New England and Bill Belichick who is unpredictable with how he deploys his RBs on a week to week basis. Sony Michele and James White could easily steal touches from Harris on any given Sunday. So Harris is a risky play with a low ceiling but if he does solidify himself as the top dog in New England’s backfield he could be a nice flex/RB2 depending on the matchup. Darrell Henderson Jr was a handcuff, until Cam Akers tore his achilleas right before the start of camp. Henderson was inconsistent at times last season but unless the Rams sign someone it’s his job to lose without a rookie RB lurking in the background to steal his spot. Chase Edmonds can be a draft day steal if he can overcome one big if. If, IF he can hold off James Connor and be the top back in Arizona on run downs as well as pass downs, I can see Edmonds sneaking into RB1 territory. He only had 1 TD on the ground and averaged 4.6 ypc in 2020, after averaging 5.1 in 2019. That potential upside is really tempting at this point in the draft.
Round 8 - Round 9
Ronald Jones | TB
Travis Etienne Jr | JAX
Raheem Mostert | SF
Javonta Williams | DEN
Zac Moss | BUF
David Johnson | HOU
Ronald Jones could be a real good player if he got more volume. But between Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk and sharing the backfield with Fornette, it’s hard to imagine Jones getting the volume necessary to be a consistent RB2 shy of a few injuries. Travis Etienne Jr. could jump up a couple tiers or just as easily fall a few and into my, “Guys I’m Watching,” tier below. All comes down to his usage rate. It may seem foolish but how many guys who drafted Akers and Dobbins last year also ended the year with him (not counting dynasty leagues). Not many. That’s why if he isn’t getting a good share of touches early on I’ll probably pass on Etienne unless I am desperate for RBs. Raheem Mostert I think could find himself on the opposite end of the rookie RB late season surge. Between Trey Sermon and the addition of Wayne Gallman (who had a solid season for the Giants when Barkley was out), Mostert may start the year as the top dog in San Francisco but could find himself as a change of pace back by year’s end. I want guys who get more touches as the year goes on, not fewer. Javonta Williams is a late riser for me after last week’s preseason game against the Vikings. This kid wowed me like he did at UNC and I now see him taking over the lead back spot sooner rather than later. Dobbins and Akers last year didn’t truly take on that role until late in the season. Williams may take that role in the first few weeks. Plus with Gordon’s injury history and already being banged up in camp, he may not hold the starting job any longer. Get Williams this late if you’re comfortable with your back and can afford to wait a few weeks before you really get the most out of him. Zack Moss and David Johnson are in a similar situation to Mostert but with some slight differences. While neither has a rookie RB behind them, neither is a safe bet to keep their job or be productive this season. Johnson especially, who barely misses being in my sleeper category, since the team brought in Phillip Lindsey this offseason. For now it seems like Johnson’s job to lose so he’ll get the nod here too. Backtracking to Zack Moss, he and Singletary weren’t effective last year but it’s year two for Moss to maybe, just maybe he carves out enough touches and does enough with them to be a high end flex play? At this point if you draft him here and get that, you’ve got a great pick.
5 MORE Fantasy Team Name Suggestions RB Edition:
Christian Mingle
Krispy Kareem Donuts
This Gurley’s on Fire
Lights, Kamara, Action!
Jamaal Shook Up
Sleepers:
Melvin Gordon | DEN
Michael Carter | NYJ
Tevin Coleman | NYJ
Jamaal Williams | DET
AJ Dillon | GB
Phillip Lindsay | HOU
Leonard Fournette | TB
Giovanni Bernard | TB
Melvin Gordon is in the same boat as Mostert. Except he has a new GM who didn’t give him his current deal, which he is on the last year of, and they moved UP in the draft to take his inevitable replacement, JaVontae Williams. I had Gordon ranked higher when I began this article but naturally there is a direct correlation/causation between the rise of Williams and the fall of Gordon. Clock is ticking on Melvin, if you are gonna draft him. There should be enough volume alone to make him roster worthy, at least early in the season. However monitor his groin injury as we get closer to draft day. Michael Carter I want to put one tier up, but without knowing how he’ll be utilized in the Jets new look offense (or how anyone will for that matter) I have a hard time justifying it. Unlike his UNC teammate Javonte Williams, I see Carter taking over later rather than sooner. Still, I think he’s a great fit in the zone run scheme and think he has the best chance of any non first round rookie to start day 1. Tevin Coleman I like for similar reasons, great fit in a zone run scheme, brings familiarity with the system. I just have Carter higher because the shiny new toy brings a world of possibilities, and with that a higher ceiling. Still, Coleman could prove to be a valuable piece this year if given the ball enough. Jamaal Williams I believe is being VASTLY overlooked this season. He was a serviceable back in Green Bay, worthy of being on a roster at minimum. Don’t be surprised if it winds up being more of a timeshare in Detroit than we think it will be when week 1 kicks off. If so, Williams could match his value from last season again. Speaking of that value, enter the Quadfather, AJ Dillon. I love Aaron Jones but he’s never been given the job alone outright and Dillion fills that void left by Williams this year. Lastly Leonard Fournette was a popular sleeper last year for many and rightfully so. He was a former fantasy surefire player, now in an offense with a lot of explosive potential. It kinda just never all came together for him and RoJo had a serious resurgence. It’s hard to imagine Fournette doing much more this year than he did last, with all the mouths they have to feed in Tampa, but if you’re looking around for one last swing as the draft comes to a close, Fournette could be a nice consolation prize. One of Leonard Fournette’s newest teammates, Giovanni Bernard is an intriguing player to me. The Tampa offense seemed to evolve into your typical Brady offense as the year went on. One key ingredient that was missing however was a receiving threat out of the backfield. Enter Gio Bernard. A solid handcuff to Mixon in years past, now in a RB mix that still feels like it’s not done mixing and the best receiving ability of anyone on the team. He’s someone I may take a flyer on and see monitor his snap count and targets very closely the first two weeks of the year. He could be a nice find, and ptoentially provide some flex appeal, especially in PPR leagues.
Handcuffs:
Last year a handcuff was SUPER important with COVID. I don’t always take a handcuff and I don’t believe in taking a handcuff of a player I don’t own. It’s like taking out a car insurance policy on my buddy’s car and not my own. If my car crashes I’m in trouble. Also not EVERY RB needs to be or has a handcuffed. If you take, only take ones who are the surefire backup and will be in line for plenty of talent and volume to put up roster worthy numbers if your initial pick goes down. Let’s put it like this. If your draft pick were to tear his ACL, will you drop someone to claim his backup off waivers immediately? If the answer is yes, the guy is handcuff worthy. Also this list won’t include guys who may lose their job to their handcuff. So you won’t see Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon below. These are strickly guys who are backups until an injury comes along to change that. That being said here are some handcuffs I would consider pairing with these players if I’ve drafted them:
Alvin Kamara => Latavius Murray
Dalvin Cook => Alexander Mattison
Ezekiel Elliot => Tony Pollard
Saquon Barkley => Travis Booker
Aaron Jones => AJ Dillon
Nick Chubb => Kareem Hunt
Jonathan Taylor => Marlon Mack
Josh Jacobs => Kenyan Drake
David Montgomery => Tarik Cohen
Guy’s I’m Not Drafting… But I’m Watching
Trey Sermon | SF
James Connor | ARI
Marlon Mack | IND
Devin Singletary | BUF
Le’Veon Bell | FA
Tarik Cohen | CHI
ANY RB LA Signs
Many of these guys are self explanatory. I want to see how many snaps/touches they receive and how well they perform with those opportunities before I’m willing to roster them. Cohen I want to see his targets mostly, bump him up in full PPR leagues. If Le’Veon Bell signs somewhere before my draft where I think there’s an opportunity for a good amount of touches I may bump him up to the sleeper category.
5 MORE MORE Fantasy Team Name Suggestions RB Edition:
Quad Squad (for Barkley + Dillon owners)
Run CMC
Forgive and Fournette
Henrything Is Possible
Catalina Wine Mixon
If you don’t see a RB here, I didn’t skip them, that mean’s I’m not considering them. Simple as that. Did I miss someone? Rank someone too high or too low? Tell me on twitter @SMalone27 or leave a comment at the bottom.
Next week we’ll revisit some players after a few preseason games and more camp to go over, and see who’s rising and falling with week 1 swiftly approaching.