Fantasy Football 2021 Season Preview Part 1: QBs
To be or not to be... the first to draft a QB...
In draft rooms across the country the first hotly debated pick made in most leagues usually tends to be whoever takes the first QB off the board. You take one before anybody else and half the league will argue that you could’ve waited because QBs are a dime a dozen, the other half will admit they were going to take him in the next few picks. I’ll break down where you should draft each QB and identify some sleepers as well. For simplicity sake I'll be acting as if this is a standard 10 team .5 PPR league, which will obviously mildly boost more players around QBs. How I break my rankings down is nontraditional but it’s how I think. I break players down into tiers based on where they should be targeted. That gives me some flexibility to go take a player a little higher than his numerical ranking if there is a run at that position. Also unless you have one of the picks closer to the middle of the draft board, you typically have the same team picking between your picks as the draft snakes. This also helps me visualize “okay team A and team B will both pick twice before I go again, they both have a QB so I don’t have to take one late round 4, I can wait till early round 5.” It’s obscure, but it works for me and hopefully for you as well.
Round 3
Patrick Mahomes | KC
The top tier in my features one QB that teams should target in round 3. That’s the earliest I’m taking a QB. Some may say that’s too early (even though Mahomes ADP in ESPN fantasy right now is the 17th pick!?) but hear me out on this one. Remember the draft is about building a team, not just collecting players. Most leagues will see Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill off the board by round 2 the latest. If they’re not, draft them ASAP. These two top pass catchers, form a LETHAL stack with Patrick Mahomes. Kelce provides steady volume with reliable touchdown numbers and Tyreek Hill and Mahomes may be the greatest deep threat WR/strong arm QB combo in NFL History (sorry Moss/Culpepper). Round 3 is where we will see who is paying attention to the board and who isn’t. If you’re up in round 3, and Mahomes is there and you don’t have Kelce/Hill, someone who has one of them will take Mahomes. You wanna land Mahomes? It has to be round 3. If you don’t, someone else who has Kelce or Hill will. Mahomes isn’t making it to round 4.
Late Round 4 - Early Round 5
Josh Allen | BUF
Aaron Rodgers | GB
Dak Prescott | DAL
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Kyler Murray | ARI
Now is where the fun begins. I can see late round 4 into round 5 beginning the run on QBs. I would typically value all these guys in round 5 so at that point you can have a core of 4 non QBs on your roster. However, if you pick at the back end of round 4 and want to kickoff the run on QBs and get your guy I see no issue in being the one to force the issue. Above is how I rank them amongst each other but you can throw any combination of the 5 out there and make an argument for it. When deciding where they stack up against each other yourself, you’ll have to answer these questions about a number them. Can Josh Allen do it again? Will Dak Prescott be 100%? Will Lamar Jacksons new WRs boost him back to the top tier? Can Kyler Murray take that next step into the MVP category the above 3 have all been a part of at different points in recent years. These guys fall short of the top tier with Mahomes and Rodgers because they don’t have the consistent recent history those guys do. Allen and Murray also give you the ability to stack if you also land Diggs and Hopkins in earlier rounds, so keep that in mind too when looking at your draft board deciding who to pick. As for Aaron Rodgers, he’s got a new deal with Green Bay and I know this is way higher than most rank him but it’s where his production is. He’s the reigning MVP and if you thought Aaron Rodgers was trying to show Green Bay management up last offseason, just you watch what he does this season. I expect another big year from Rodgers with a new contract and new team on the horizon and the salary cap set to explode.
5 Fantasy Team Name Suggestions QB Edition:
Justin Fields of Eden
Danny Dime Variance Authority
Guess Who’s Dak
WAP Wentz and Prescott
Pay Him the Rodger’s Rate
Round 6 - Round 7
Russell Wilson | SEA
Justin Herbert | LAC
By this point 6 QBs should be off the board. Treating this as a standard 10 team, that means over half the league has their QB spot filled. Keep that in mind while deciding when you want to pull the trigger and take a QB. If you pick 8th and the teams picking 9th and 10th already have a QB, wait till the draft snakes back before taking a QB. Those teams could draft the top non-QB you’re eyeing right now. I have Russell Wilson as the top QB in this tier simply because of his history. Wilson has put up top fantasy football numbers almost every year of his career. He was the early favorite to win MVP last season too don’t forget. With Metcalf and Lockett, Wilson has a high floor and a high ceiling which is why I prefer him to Justin Herbert. This is by no means a slight to Herbert, I LOVE Justin Herbert going into this season and would be very happy with him as my QB. I just see less of a track record with the same upside compared to Wilson which is why I have Herbert one spot lower in my rankings. Herbert wasn’t the same QB late last season but I expect more early season Herbert than late season for the 2nd year Chargers QB.
Round 8 - Round 9
Tom Brady | TB
Joe Burrow | CIN
Ryan Tannehill | TEN
Jalen Hurts | PHI
By this point in the draft you should have your entire starting lineup filled out and then some, shy of defense, kicker, and if you’re still in need of one, a QB. Again treating this as a 10 team, only 2 teams don’t have a QB and there are 4 intriguing options I see in this tier. Tom Brady continues to beat father time like a non NFC East team in the Super Bowl. Can he do it again? At this point I’d take that risk. Speaking of risk, Joe Burrow embodies that this season. Coming back off a torn ACL with a questionable at best offensive line. He was a stud last season however and now you add Ja’Marr Chase to the mix? The ceiling on Burrow is high but there’s the risk to injury and the question of if the line can keep him upright long enough to make big plays. High risk, high reward. Ryan Tannehill is interesting this year, he’s reinvented himself in Tennessee but we all know King Henry reigns supreme. Will Tannehill have the volume necessary to make the addition of Julio Jones significant? This late in the draft he’s one of the safest top 10 QB plays left. Lastly Jalen Hurts will be one to watch during the preseason. He now has DeVonta Smith to throw to, Ertz is still there, Reagor is in year two, a full year of the offense being built around his set of skills (remember the wonders that did for Lamar Jackson in year 2) and he runs which is so valuable for QBs in fantasy. I think his floor is higher than most expect, especially because of his ability to run and at this point I’d take a flier on him but he’s just barely squeezed himself into this tier.
Sleepers:
Matthew Stafford | LAR
Daniel Jones | NYG
Carson Wentz | IND
Matt Ryan | ATL
Taysom Hill | NO
Trevor Lawrence | JAX
These are players I would take round 10 and beyond who I consider a sleeper pick. To me, that means I view as players who have starting quality potential this season that you’re drafting in a position where you’re just filling out your roster. There are no rounds designated for these players because at this point in the draft I don’t consider “reaching,” a thing anymore. GO GET YOUR GUYS. You like someone, go get him. Block out all the other noise. Use your final picks to collect the guys you want. If you strike gold it may win you your league. If not, these guys are victims of waiver wire cuts in the first few weeks anyway. You only remember the sleepers you nail, rarely the ones you don’t. Matt Stafford will be a popular sleeper and will probably go above the guys I mentioned in my previous tier. I just think Stafford is being overhyped here. I think he can be special this year, that’s why I have him as my top sleeper. I just don’t see the top 5 QB season that a lot of people do. Stafford is good, but lets not pretend he was Patrick Mahomes in Detroit. Daniel Jones sits at #2 on my sleepers and I know I’ll get killed for this but again I’m shooting for upside. The Giants put a ton of resources into the WRs this offseason, adding the top free agent pass catcher in Kenny Golladay and drafting Kadarious Toney with the 20th pick. Saquon is back off injury too. The O Line also looked far better in the second half of last season outside of the Arizona game and it will be a normal offseason for Jason Garrett to install his system. This is Jones final chance, the Giants have the draft capital to draft or trade for his replacement this offseason if he can’t prove it this year. Again, we’re digging for gold here with these picks and with his ability to run (when he keeps his feet) I’m going to shoot my shot with Jones again. Matt Ryan may have lost Julio Jones, but he still has some great targets to throw to in Ridley and the newly acquired Kyle Pitts and Mike Davis out of the backfield so there’s reason to believe he won’t drop that far off. Taysom Hill I have a higher floor on than some due to not only his rushing but how often they run with him at the goal line similar to vintage Cam Newton. Trevor Lawrence I love the talent and in dynasty he goes much, much higher but here if I’m taking a flyer on any rookie QB, it’s the guy who’s never lost a regular season game… ever… (Jacksonville will certainly fix that). Lawrence is someone I take with one of the final picks in the draft if I want more insurance in my QB bunch. Plus the talent around Lawrence is really intriguing and he could do a lot with it.
Guy’s I’m Not Drafting… But I’m Watching
Justin Fields | CHI
Carson Wentz | IND
Trey Lance | SF
DeShaun Watson | HOU
Jameis Winston | NO
Cam Newton | NE
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
Justin Fields is interesting because I doubt he starts week 1, but if he gets named a starter he might be worth stashing on your bench if you have an open spot and seeing what happens. The Bears D will take a step back this season, which means more passing on offense playing catchup, he’s got Robinson, Kmet and Miller to throw to, and he can run. Carson Wentz fell out of my sleeper tier and into my watch tier in light of the news on his recovery. Wentz is said to be out 5 to 12 weeks. 5 weeks has him returning in time for week 1 but with no preseason. 12 weeks is a week 8 return. That said, if Wentz can regain his MVP form, or anything close to it, he could be a nice steal off the waiver wire. Monitor his status as your draft approaches and he may even be worthy of a final pick. DeShaun Watson is such a toxic situation. He showed up to camp, but will he play? Where? Will he be suspended? Watson has been playing scout team defense at camp, which isn’t promising for his outlook. I’m avoiding using a pick on Watson, WAY too much going on to feel comfortable drafting him. I’ll pass. I have Taysom in my sleepers and Jameis Winston in my watchlist tier for one reason and one reason only. Ability to run. Winston won’t have the goal line running opportunities or run the ball much in general compared to Taysom. That hurts his floor enough for me to drop him down a tier, especially without Michael Thomas for God knows how long. Cam Newton was a sleeper for many last year, and year 2 in New England should go better with players back from opting out and the investments in pass catchers that New England has made. However, I want to see it first before I make an investment in it. Tua Tagovailoa is a late addition. Lowkey, I think there’s a ton of upside here. I love the upgrades Miami made to it’s WR core, by adding a ludicrous amount of speed in Waddle and Fuller, that offense could go to plaid. He’s not enticing enough to draft but I’ll be watching closely to see how he does to start the season if I need a QB.
5 MORE Fantasy Team Name Suggestions QB Edition:
Hurts so Good
Burrow My Head in the Sand
TBA Tom Bradiance Authority
Tua Legit to Quit
Breaking the Lawrence
If you don’t see a QB here, I didn’t skip them, that mean’s I’m not considering them. I won’t go over all of them but Cousins for example I don’t see a high enough ceiling on. Doesn’t mean I won’t draft him if I need a safe play at QB, I just don’t classify him as a sleeper or a player I will be watching closely when the season starts. Remember commandment IV, and be ready to adapt if someone comes out of nowhere to impress. Did I miss someone? Rank someone too high or too low? Tell me on twitter @SMalone27 or leave a comment at the bottom.
Next week we’ll break down the pass catchers, where you may find a surprise in my top tier.